Wednesday, May 19, 2004

Economic forces

My son, Yosh, encourages me to read the Economist. Ever since college, he has been skeptical of many publications' true objectivity, but the Economist has held fast in his perceptions.

Today, I'm reading about "The Great Fall of China."

This article states that China's economy is growing too fast for comfort, and it could hurt other countries if it slows down too fast.

For example, the article states, "During the past three years China has accounted for one-third of global economic growth (measured at purchasing-power parity), twice as much as America." Wow -- one-third of global economic growth?

And then this:
"China's scorching growth has helped to prop up other economies by sucking in imports, which surged by 40% last year alone. While America's industrial output has shrunk over the past three years, China's has increased by almost 50%. As a result, its demand for commodities has skyrocketed, driving up prices. Last year it consumed 40% of the world's output of cement. It also accounted for one-third of the growth in global oil consumption, 90% of the growth in world steel demand, and more than the whole of the increase in copper demand."
The Economist article goes on to state that the biggest losers from a "hard landing" in China would be its Asian neighbors. Japan, along with other countries in the region, have been much too dependent on exports to China.

I am trying to develop a larger view, a world view, if you will, of the economic forces that play out in my life. When I worry about losing my contract job to someone in India or I have to pay over $2.00 per gallon for gasoline, these are economic forces and they are not coming out of a vacuum. They have very real origins in very real geographic places in some other part of the globe. I need to pay attention to them.

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